Hybrid Automobile Technology

For many years, automakers have been attempting to design a viable electric vehicle. It has long been known that oil is a finite resource and with the demands for oil largely driven by America's demands, as well as the ever-increasing demands of other industrialized nations, both automakers and governments have long been desiring of a pollution-free alternative that does not rely on oil and gasoline to run.

Why, then, have such efforts, with all the time and money spent on them, been largely unsuccessful? The answer is not a simple one, for there are many factors which act as driving forces in this case.

First, it is important to examine why the development of an electric, pollution-free vehicle, or at the very least the continuing development of hybrid gas-electric vehicles is a desirable goal. The world's population is continuing to expand at a very fast rate in many developing nations. As these nations become more industrialized, their desire for automobiles, and thus oil, will increase. Also, nations such as China, with well over a billion people, are continuing to see an increased demand for automobiles.

This will only serve to accelerate two problems that we are currently facing on a global basis: demand for oil, and pollution.

Oil is a finite resource and it is currently unknown how much longer oil production can continue at current rates. In fact, oil production rates will need to increase rather than remain at their current rates due to the ever-increasing demand. While it is not known how long production can continue, it is known that eventually there will reach a point where that production cannot continue. It is evident, then, that if another solution is not found, that a major energy crisis will occur at some point in the future.

Also, there has been much concern about greenhouse gases and their effects on world climate. Many conflicting studies have taken place on the effects of our pollution, and it is beyond the scope of this writing to analyze whether, in fact, a real threat exists. However, there is certainly a very real possibility of such a threat of pollution seriously affecting our climate, and as a result, pollution is a driving force as well as oil demands in the production and development of electric vehicles. In this case, though, the demand for oil would be a much more important driving force as it is economic in nature and people tend to be much more motivated by economic factors than environmental ones -- especially considering that the next oil crisis is likely to be far worse than that which took place in the 1970s if a transition to a renewable fuel source does not take place.

Because of these factors automakers have been attempting to design electric automobiles for a number of years. Electric-only vehicles suffer from the problems of lack of battery life, poor acceleration and speed, limited driving distance, and high cost compared to their better-performing gasoline counterparts. As a result, efforts to market purely electric

vehicles have largely failed. Consumers simply will not purchase a product that performs worse in nearly all measurable aspects, and pay a higher cost to do so. In our current society where oil is still plentiful, an alternative market would need to be found for an electric vehicle to do well. To this point, such a market has not been found. As a disruptive technology, an electric vehicle does not fit into any of the current markets for cars.

As an alternative to the electric vehicle, automakers have also developed the hybrid vehicle as more of a sustaining technology. With a gas-powered engine, these cars perform just as well as any other. The only downside is the additional cost. However, a combination of driving forces -- the desire for environmental friendliness, and incentives for purchasing a hybrid car -- can eliminate the negatives of the added cost since the cars are nearly identical to traditional gas-powered vehicles in nearly all other respects.

Government incentives have added to the efforts to promote electric and hybrid vehicles -- for example, California now has very strict laws on exactly how much pollution can be emitted by cars and has incentives for automakers who sell hybrid or electric cars. Also, a sizable tax break is currently in effect for the next few years for individuals who purchase hybrid vehicles. This helps to offset the added cost of the vehicles compared to their gas-only counterparts.

It seems likely, then, that until a market is found for electric vehicles, which appear to be a disruptive technology, that we will continue to see advancement in the development of the sustaining technology, hybrid vehicles. At the very least, should hybrid vehicles become popular, they will succeed in postponing the possibility of a severe energy crisis.

Already we are seeing that this rise in popularity of hybrid cars might be taking place. The Toyota Prius, a hybrid car, has recently received Motor Trend's 2004 "Car of the Year" award and Ford and Toyota both plan on releasing a hybrid sport-utility vehicle, or SUV, in 2005. SUVs, which tend to get very poor gas mileage, will likely turn out to be a very lucrative market for a hybrid vehicle as the savings in gasoline will have a much larger impact than it would with standard-sized cars, which are already reasonably efficient in most cases.

The ultimate goal, however, from both an environmental standpoint and an economic one, would be to achieve a completely electric vehicle. Despite the failure to this point in finding a viable market for electric vehicles, major automakers continue to release prototypes for models which are gradually improving from year to year. A Canadian company, Hydro-Québec, has recently announced plans for a new, improved electric vehicle which is based on an improved lithium metal polymer battery. It expects to produce 10,000 in 2006 and will mainly target commercial customers but also expects the car to be very attractive toward individuals living in large, congested cities.

Hydro-Quebec in electric car joint venture. Reuters; March 4, 2003.http://wardsauto.com/ar/transportation_update_hydroquebec_electric/

An electric vehicle, then, will perhaps only see sales in small, niche markets in the near future. However, the availability of hybrid vehicles should see major advances within the next five to ten years. The key driving forces will be the price of oil and the price of the new cars, since both will most directly affect what consumers will purchase. Given that most of the world's oil is produced in the Middle East, which is an extremely politically unstable region, it will be beneficial to all to reduce our dependence on it. With the improvements in the sustaining technology of hybrid vehicles, as well as the continuing search for a market for the disruptive technology of electric vehicles, a solution to the possible oil crisis of the future should be found.